Unfortunately, for better or for worse, the Ukraine war will last even longer. In addition to the catastrophic human suffering, the associated energy crisis will be our concern over the next year. Energy-intensive companies as well as private households have to adjust to this:
so billig wird Energie nie mehr zu haben sein wie vor der gegenwärtigen Energiekrise.
And unfortunately, the destruction of the environment - often trivializingly called climate change - continues because the decisive course was not set at the climate summit. The longer we wait, the more expensive it will be to change course. The pressure on raw material prices and thus production costs will ease somewhat due to the crisis, and supply chains will generally become somewhat more stable because China cannot continue to implement its zero-Covid strategy. The supply of raw materials remains critical until new sources and routes are found. Freight rates and prices should then fall again.
The COVID-19 pandemic will become less important to us than other topics. Ability to deliver becomes a key ability for successful companies!
Inflation and pricing will remain the order of the day in 2023. Further rate hikes can be expected from the ECB. As a result, borrowing costs also remain higher than they have been in the recent past. Digitization is progressing (e-commerce will continue to increase), even public authorities will have to adapt. Consumption continues to differentiate: Customers want to shop when, through which channel and what they want. The ecologically oriented share will grow, but unfortunately so will green washing, for example "climate-neutral meat imports", a contradiction in terms. This contrasts with a variety of initiatives in the direction of sustainability.
It is often said that the only constant is change, but because of the simultaneity and intensity it is felt to be a restless time. However, one thing remains constant: choosing food and goods is still best done in-store (sales in online retail fell for the first time in November 22). The shopping streets are alive again, less than before CORONA and the crisis.
But trade is alive, and the very few new convenience stores being marketed at high prices; then the investor has 15 years of peace and stable income.